Divergence
20 flagged
Model against price
Prices where the model disagrees with a bookmaker, widest gap first. A divergence is a hypothesis about a price, not a recommendation.
Read this first
These are prices where the model disagrees with a bookmaker. This model scores worse than the closing market in its own backtest, so treat any edge shown here as unproven. Stakes are fractional Kelly and hard-capped.
Marketh2h away
Model6.2%
Best price21.00
Book1xBet
Edge+29.8 pp
Stake0.4%
medium confidenceMarketh2h draw
Model34.4%
Best price3.72
Book1xBet
Edge+28.1 pp
Stake2.0%
medium confidenceMarketh2h draw
Model31.1%
Best price4.10
BookBetfair Exchange
Edge+27.6 pp
Stake2.0%
medium confidenceMarketh2h draw
Model35.9%
Best price3.50
BookBoyleSports
Edge+25.8 pp
Stake2.0%
medium confidenceMarketh2h draw
Model31.6%
Best price3.94
Book1xBet
Edge+24.4 pp
Stake2.0%
medium confidenceMarketh2h draw
Model35.1%
Best price3.50
BookBetfair Exchange
Edge+22.9 pp
Stake2.0%
medium confidenceMarketh2h draw
Model31.8%
Best price3.85
BookBetfair Exchange
Edge+22.2 pp
Stake2.0%
medium confidenceMarketh2h draw
Model33.7%
Best price3.62
Book1xBet
Edge+22.1 pp
Stake2.0%
medium confidenceMarketh2h draw
Model34.7%
Best price3.50
BookBest available
Edge+21.4 pp
Stake2.0%
medium confidenceMarketh2h draw
Model29.9%
Best price4.05
Book1xBet
Edge+21.0 pp
Stake1.7%
medium confidenceMarketh2h away
Model20.1%
Best price6.00
BookBest available
Edge+20.6 pp
Stake1.0%
medium confidenceMarketh2h away
Model27.5%
Best price4.30
BookBetfair Exchange
Edge+18.4 pp
Stake1.4%
medium confidenceMarketh2h draw
Model33.6%
Best price3.50
BookBetfred (UK)
Edge+17.6 pp
Stake1.8%
medium confidenceMarketh2h draw
Model30.0%
Best price3.84
Book1xBet
Edge+15.3 pp
Stake1.3%
medium confidenceMarketh2h away
Model27.1%
Best price4.10
BookBetfair Exchange
Edge+10.9 pp
Stake0.9%
medium confidenceMarketh2h away
Model21.7%
Best price5.00
BookBetfair Exchange
Edge+8.7 pp
Stake0.5%
medium confidenceMarketh2h away
Model21.2%
Best price5.10
BookMatchbook
Edge+7.9 pp
Stake0.5%
medium confidenceMarketh2h away
Model37.5%
Best price2.86
BookBetfair Exchange
Edge+7.2 pp
Stake1.0%
medium confidenceMarketh2h draw
Model27.0%
Best price3.96
Book1xBet
Edge+7.0 pp
Stake0.6%
medium confidenceMarketh2h away
Model29.3%
Best price3.65
BookBetfair Exchange
Edge+6.9 pp
Stake0.7%
medium confidenceContext
The record behind these numbers
Shown on this page by rule: an edge means nothing without knowing how the model scores overall.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
| Metric | Model | Market | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranked probability score | 0.2047 | 0.1965 | +0.0082 |
| Log loss | 0.9882 | 0.9623 | +0.0259 |
| Brier | 0.5883 | 0.5711 | +0.0172 |
| Accuracy | 52.5% | 54.8% | −2.3 pp |
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean