Fixture 99scheduledGW 10

Nott'm Forest v Man City

Sat 7 Nov 17:30Zmarket prices held

Expected goals0.52 — 1.34

Expected points0.71 — 1.98

Over 2.528.5%fair 3.51

Both score30.5%fair 3.28

Most likely0-119.5%

Markets priced27

Ch 01 · Outcome

Match result

The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.

OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt

NFO

13.3%7.53−6.3 pp

Draw

30.9%3.24+7.7 pp

MCI

55.8%1.79−1.4 pp

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20261102

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Nott'm Forest13.3%7.53

Draw30.9%3.24

Man City55.8%1.79

Double chance

Nott'm Forest or draw44.2%2.26

Nott'm Forest or Man City69.1%1.45

Draw or Man City86.7%1.15

Draw no bet

Nott'm Forest19.2%5.20

Man City80.8%1.24

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Nott'm Forest9.6%10.47

Man City42.6%2.35

Clean sheet

Nott'm Forest26.9%3.72

Man City59.9%1.67

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Team rating gap-239 Elo

Favours MCI. NFO 1501 against MCI 1740, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Recent form0.80 against 2.40 points per game

Favours MCI. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLLLW against LWWWW

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours NFO. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Unavailable players24% home against 26% away xG missing

Favours NFO. 3 out and 6 doubtful for NFO, 2 out and 5 doubtful for MCI; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Underlying expected goals+0.14 net xG per match

Favours NFO. NFO +1.12, MCI +0.97 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

NFO

DLLLW

12 Sept – 23 Oct

MCI

WWWWL

13 Sept – 24 Oct

0.80Points per game2.40

4Goals for13

7Goals against7

11.38Expected goals11.69

1,501Elo1,740

Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): NFO 1, drawn 2, MCI 5. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.

Market	Selection	Best	Book	Implied	N
h2h	away	1.74	Pinnacle	57.5%	42
h2h	draw	4.37	1xBet	22.9%	42
h2h	home	5.10	Betfair	19.6%	42

Ch 06 · Availability

Nott'm Forest

23.7% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

Igor JesusFWDinjured0%8.5% xG

Calf injury - Unknown return date

I.SangaréMIDinjured0%0.6% xG

Calf injury - Unknown return date

SavonaDEFinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

Gibbs-WhiteMIDdoubtful75%17.3% xG

Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing

NdoyeMIDdoubtful50%15.9% xG

Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing

N.WilliamsDEFdoubtful75%6.5% xG

Arm injury - 75% chance of playing

MilenkovićDEFdoubtful75%1.4% xG

Knee injury - 75% chance of playing

Jair CunhaDEFdoubtful75%1.2% xG

Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing

DominguezMIDdoubtful75%

Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 06 · Availability

Man City

26.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

FodenMIDsuspended0%12.4% xG

Suspended until 17 Oct

SemenyoMIDinjured0%1.9% xG

Knee injury - Unknown return date

HaalandFWDdoubtful75%35.8% xG

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

O'ReillyDEFdoubtful75%6.7% xG

Back injury - 75% chance of playing

DokuMIDdoubtful75%3.8% xG

Calf injury - 75% chance of playing

Matheus N.DEFdoubtful75%0.8% xG

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

KovačićMIDdoubtful75%

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 07 · Simulation

Re-price without a player

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Ch 08 · Briefing

Written summary

generated text

Written by gpt-5.6-terra from the numbers above, which it cannot add to or override.

Man City have the model’s highest win probability at 55.2%, with a 30.8% draw chance and 14.0% for Nott'm Forest. Expected goals are 1.34 for City and 0.54 for Forest. The low scoring profile is reflected in 29.2% for over 2.5 goals and 31.7% for both teams to score. City’s recent record is 4 wins from 5 and 2.4 points per game, compared with Forest’s 1 win and 0.8 points per game. City’s Elo is 1740 against 1501. Across 8 head-to-head meetings, City have 5 wins, Forest 1, and there have been 2 draws. The market is slightly more favourable to Forest, pricing them at 20.2% versus the model’s 14.0%, while City are 56.2% in the market and 55.2% in the model. The model does not beat the closing market. No measured absences are listed, but there are 9 unmeasured Forest absentees and 7 for City, so their attacking impact is not quantified.

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean