The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt
MUN
35.5%2.82−6.9 pp
Draw
31.6%3.17+5.9 pp
AVL
32.9%3.04+1.0 pp
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Man Utd35.5%2.82
Draw31.6%3.17
Aston Villa32.9%3.04
Double chance
Man Utd or draw67.1%1.49
Man Utd or Aston Villa68.4%1.46
Draw or Aston Villa64.5%1.55
Draw no bet
Man Utd51.9%1.93
Aston Villa48.1%2.08
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Man Utd21.9%4.56
Aston Villa20.2%4.95
Clean sheet
Man Utd34.6%2.89
Aston Villa32.9%3.04
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Recent form0.60 against 2.00 points per game
Favours AVL. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LDDDL against WWDWL
Unavailable players16% home against 10% away xG missing
Favours AVL. 6 out and 9 doubtful for MUN, 4 out and 10 doubtful for AVL; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours MUN. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Underlying expected goals-0.27 net xG per match
Favours AVL. MUN -0.60, AVL -0.33 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap-23 Elo
Favours AVL. MUN 1588 against AVL 1611, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
MUN
LDDDL
13 Sept – 25 Oct
AVL
LWDWW
12 Sept – 24 Oct
0.60Points per game2.00
3Goals for9
7Goals against7
5.86Expected goals7.36
1,588Elo1,611
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): MUN 5, drawn 2, AVL 3. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
Market
Selection
Best
Book
Implied
N
h2h
away
3.10
Betfair
32.3%
39
h2h
draw
3.94
1xBet
25.4%
39
h2h
home
2.36
Matchbook
42.4%
39
Ch 06 · Availability
Man Utd
16.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
DorguMIDinjured0%5.4% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
ŠeškoFWDinjured0%2.7% xG
Shin injury - Unknown return date
MartinezDEFsuspended0%1.7% xG
Suspended until 22 Nov
ShawDEFinjured0%0.2% xG
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
HeatonGKPinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
UgarteMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
RashfordMIDdoubtful75%5.4% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
AmadMIDdoubtful75%5.0% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
MainooMIDdoubtful25%2.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 25% chance of playing
MountMIDdoubtful75%1.6% xG
Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
and 5 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Aston Villa
9.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
CashDEFsuspended0%1.9% xG
Suspended until 21 Nov
RuggeriDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 2 Jan
Wan-BissakaDEFinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
OnanaMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ManzambiMIDdoubtful75%14.7% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
BarkleyMIDdoubtful75%4.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
MaatsenDEFdoubtful75%3.7% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
PauDEFdoubtful75%2.4% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
AlyssonMIDdoubtful75%1.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
GoretzkaMIDdoubtful75%1.7% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
and 4 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
generated text
Written by gpt-5.6-terra from the numbers above, which it cannot add to or override.
The model makes Man Utd the narrowest of favourites at 36.0%, with Aston Villa at 32.5% and the draw at 31.4%. Expected goals are 1.14 for Man Utd and 1.07 for Villa. The 37.9% chance of over 2.5 goals and 45.5% both-teams-to-score probability point to a low-scoring setup.
The market is more positive on Man Utd, assigning them 43.1% versus the model’s 36.0%. It gives the draw 25.3%, below the model’s 31.4%, while Villa are close at 31.5% market and 32.5% model. The scorecard says the model does not beat the market.
Recent form favours Villa: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5, compared with Man Utd’s 3 draws and 2 losses. Villa have 2.0 points per game to Man Utd’s 0.6. Across 10 head-to-head meetings, Man Utd have 5 wins, Villa 3 and there have been 2 draws. There are no listed missing players, though 15 Man Utd and 14 Villa absentees have unmeasured output shares.
Ch 09 · Divergence
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
h2h drawmodel 31.6% vs 3.94 (1xBet)+24.4 ppstake 2.0%medium confidence
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean