The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt
LEE
30.9%3.24−6.5 pp
Draw
33.7%2.96+5.4 pp
TOT
35.4%2.83+1.0 pp
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Leeds30.9%3.24
Draw33.7%2.96
Spurs35.4%2.83
Double chance
Leeds or draw64.6%1.55
Leeds or Spurs66.3%1.51
Draw or Spurs69.1%1.45
Draw no bet
Leeds46.6%2.14
Spurs53.4%1.87
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Leeds20.5%4.88
Spurs23.5%4.25
Clean sheet
Leeds36.2%2.77
Spurs39.2%2.55
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players27% home against 18% away xG missing
Favours TOT. 2 out and 8 doubtful for LEE, 10 out and 6 doubtful for TOT; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours LEE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Recent form1.20 against 1.60 points per game
Favours TOT. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DDLDW against WWDLD
Team rating gap+39 Elo
Favours LEE. LEE 1516 against TOT 1477, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals+0.01 net xG per match
Favours LEE. LEE +0.14, TOT +0.13 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
LEE
DDLDW
14 Sept – 25 Oct
TOT
DLDWW
12 Sept – 24 Oct
1.20Points per game1.60
6Goals for8
4Goals against5
7.05Expected goals6.45
1,516Elo1,477
Head to head over 6 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): LEE 0, drawn 1, TOT 5. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
Market
Selection
Best
Book
Implied
N
h2h
away
2.88
Betfair
34.7%
42
h2h
draw
3.62
1xBet
27.6%
42
h2h
home
2.66
Betfair
37.6%
42
Ch 06 · Availability
Leeds
27.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
RodonDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
Mateo JosephFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Calvert-LewinFWDdoubtful50%34.1% xG
Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
StachMIDdoubtful50%13.1% xG
Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
JamesMIDdoubtful50%3.1% xG
Back injury - 50% chance of playing
OkaforMIDdoubtful75%2.8% xG
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
ElvediDEFdoubtful75%2.1% xG
Illness - 75% chance of playing
WilsonMIDdoubtful75%1.2% xG
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
BahoyaMIDdoubtful75%0.2% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
GruevMIDdoubtful25%
Knee injury - 25% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Spurs
17.8% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Pedro PorroDEFinjured0%4.8% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 24 Oct
SávioMIDinjured0%4.6% xG
Muscular injury - Expected back 21 Nov
BergvallMIDinjured0%1.0% xG
Knee injury - Expected back 31 Oct
BentancurMIDsuspended0%0.2% xG
Suspended until 7 Nov
MudrykMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
RicharlisonFWDunavailable0%
not included in squad.
TosinDEFinjured0%
Calf injury - Unknown return date
UdogieDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
OdobertMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
XaviMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
and 6 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
generated text
Written by gpt-5.6-terra from the numbers above, which it cannot add to or override.
The model rates Spurs narrowly highest at 35.1%, with the draw at 33.6% and Leeds at 31.3%. Expected goals are low at 0.96 for Leeds and 1.04 for Spurs. Over 2.5 goals is rated at 32.1%, while both teams scoring is 40.6%.
The market disagrees. It gives Leeds a 37.9% win probability, above Spurs at 34.0%, and rates the draw lower at 28.1%. The model therefore leans more towards Spurs or a draw than the market does. Its scorecard does not beat the closing market.
Leeds have taken 1.2 points per game across five matches, with three draws, while Spurs have taken 1.6. Leeds’ Elo is 1516 against Spurs’ 1477. Spurs have won five of the last six meetings, with one draw. There are 10 Leeds and 16 Spurs absentees whose attacking-output shares could not be measured.
Ch 09 · Divergence
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
h2h drawmodel 33.7% vs 3.62 (1xBet)+22.1 ppstake 2.0%medium confidence
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean