Ipswich Town v Bournemouth
Match result
The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
27 markets
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
What is driving this
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Both sides
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): IPS 1, drawn 0, BOU 1. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
| Market | Selection | Best | Book | Implied | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| h2h | away | 2.02 | 1xBet | 49.5% | 40 |
| h2h | draw | 3.96 | 1xBet | 25.3% | 40 |
| h2h | home | 3.95 | Betfair | 25.3% | 40 |
Ipswich Town
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Bournemouth
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Written summary
Written by gpt-5.6-terra from the numbers above, which it cannot add to or override.
Bournemouth carry the highest model win probability at 50.4%, compared with 27.0% for a draw and 22.5% for Ipswich Town. The goal model is 0.99 for Ipswich and 1.59 for Bournemouth. Both teams to score is rated at 50.9%, while over 2.5 goals is 47.8%. Recent results are identical: both sides have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 5, with 8 scored and 8 conceded. The underlying numbers differ sharply. Bournemouth’s xG figures are 12.1 for and 4.4 against, while Ipswich’s are 6.6 for and 12.1 against. Bournemouth also have the higher Elo rating, 1585 to 1411. The two recent head-to-head meetings produced one win each. The market is slightly less favourable to Bournemouth, assigning them 49.5% versus the model’s 50.4%, and gives Ipswich 25.1% against the model’s 22.5%. The scorecard says the model does not beat the closing market. Neither side has a listed measurable absentee, but there are 7 unmeasured absences for each team, so their attacking impact is unknown.
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
| Metric | Model | Market | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranked probability score | 0.2047 | 0.1965 | +0.0082 |
| Log loss | 0.9882 | 0.9623 | +0.0259 |
| Brier | 0.5883 | 0.5711 | +0.0172 |
| Accuracy | 52.5% | 54.8% | −2.3 pp |
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean