Everton v Coventry City
Match result
The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
27 markets
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Coventry City has only 8 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Everton 147 · Coventry City 8What is driving this
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Both sides
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
| Market | Selection | Best | Book | Implied | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| h2h | away | 5.10 | Matchbook | 19.6% | 41 |
| h2h | draw | 4.16 | 1xBet | 24.0% | 41 |
| h2h | home | 1.75 | 1xBet | 57.1% | 41 |
Everton
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Coventry City
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Written summary
Written by gpt-5.6-terra from the numbers above, which it cannot add to or override.
The model gives Everton a 46.0% win probability, with the draw at 32.6% and Coventry City at 21.4%. Expected goals are 1.17 for Everton and 0.71 for Coventry. The 29.2% over-2.5-goals figure and 36.0% both-teams-to-score figure point to a low-scoring model profile. The market is more positive on Everton, pricing their win probability at 55.7%, against the model’s 46.0%. It gives the draw 24.6% and Coventry 19.7%, both below the model’s 32.6% and 21.4%. The scorecard says the model does not beat the closing market, so these figures do not indicate an edge over it. Everton’s last 5 matches brought 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 3 goals from 8.3 xG. Coventry have 2 wins and 3 losses, scoring 6 from 5.0 xG. There are no named missing players, but 7 Everton and 10 Coventry absentees have no measurable output-share estimate, so their effect is unknown.
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
| Metric | Model | Market | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranked probability score | 0.2047 | 0.1965 | +0.0082 |
| Log loss | 0.9882 | 0.9623 | +0.0259 |
| Brier | 0.5883 | 0.5711 | +0.0172 |
| Accuracy | 52.5% | 54.8% | −2.3 pp |
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean