The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt
BHA
43.6%2.29−6.4 pp
Draw
29.9%3.35+5.3 pp
BRE
26.5%3.77+1.1 pp
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Brighton43.6%2.29
Draw29.9%3.35
Brentford26.5%3.77
Double chance
Brighton or draw73.5%1.36
Brighton or Brentford70.1%1.43
Draw or Brentford56.4%1.77
Draw no bet
Brighton62.2%1.61
Brentford37.8%2.64
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Brighton26.2%3.82
Brentford15.3%6.55
Clean sheet
Brighton37.3%2.68
Brentford26.4%3.79
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals+1.33 net xG per match
Favours BHA. BHA +1.00, BRE -0.33 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form2.40 against 1.20 points per game
Favours BHA. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LWWWW against DLDWD
Unavailable players10% home against 16% away xG missing
Favours BHA. 6 out and 8 doubtful for BHA, 9 out and 4 doubtful for BRE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours BHA. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap+32 Elo
Favours BHA. BHA 1591 against BRE 1559, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
BHA
LWWWW
13 Sept – 25 Oct
BRE
DWDLD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
2.40Points per game1.20
15Goals for9
2Goals against7
10.09Expected goals7.12
1,591Elo1,559
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): BHA 5, drawn 3, BRE 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
Market
Selection
Best
Book
Implied
N
h2h
away
3.90
Betfair
25.6%
39
h2h
draw
4.05
1xBet
24.7%
39
h2h
home
1.98
1xBet
50.5%
39
Ch 06 · Availability
Brighton
9.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
StruijkDEFinjured0%1.8% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 8 Nov
YohannaMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Expected back 22 Nov
AzeezMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Expected back 8 Nov
FergusonFWDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
MitomaMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Expected back 22 Nov
TzimasFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
HinshelwoodMIDdoubtful75%14.0% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
AyariMIDdoubtful75%11.3% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
AndrésMIDdoubtful75%3.1% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
GeorginioFWDdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
and 4 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Brentford
16.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
JaneltMIDsuspended0%3.7% xG
Suspended until 31 Oct
CarvalhoMIDinjured0%3.0% xG
Knock - Expected back 23 Nov
YarmoliukMIDsuspended0%1.3% xG
Suspended until 8 Nov
Van den BergDEFinjured0%1.1% xG
Groin injury - Unknown return date
JensenMIDinjured0%0.9% xG
Unspecified injury - Expected back 10 Oct
HenryDEFinjured0%
Hip injury - Unknown return date
DasilvaMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
FuroFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
MilamboMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
SchadeMIDdoubtful75%14.8% xG
Shoulder injury - 75% chance of playing
and 3 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
generated text
Written by gpt-5.6-terra from the numbers above, which it cannot add to or override.
Brighton lead the model at 43.6%, with the draw at 29.9% and Brentford at 26.5%. The goal model is modest: 1.35 expected goals for Brighton and 0.99 for Brentford. Over 2.5 goals is rated at 41.4%, while both teams scoring is 47.4%.
Brighton’s last five include four wins, 15 goals scored and two conceded, with 10.1 xG for and 5.1 against. Brentford have one win in five, scoring nine and conceding seven; their xG figures are 7.1 for and 8.8 against. Brighton have five wins, three draws and two losses across the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
The market rates Brighton higher than the model, at 50.1% versus 43.6%. It is lower on the draw, 24.5% versus 29.9%, and marginally lower on Brentford, 25.4% versus 26.5%. There are no named absentees, but 14 Brighton and 13 Brentford absentees have unmeasured output shares. The scorecard says the model does not beat the closing market.
Ch 09 · Divergence
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
h2h drawmodel 29.9% vs 4.05 (1xBet)+21.0 ppstake 1.7%medium confidence
h2h awaymodel 26.5% vs 3.90 (Betfair)+3.5 ppstake 0.3%low confidence
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean