Arsenal v Hull City
Match result
The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
27 markets
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Hull City has only 8 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Arsenal 148 · Hull City 8What is driving this
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Both sides
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
| Market | Selection | Best | Book | Implied | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| h2h | away | 21.00 | 1xBet | 4.8% | 42 |
| h2h | draw | 9.00 | Tipico | 11.1% | 42 |
| h2h | home | 1.18 | Betfair | 84.7% | 42 |
Arsenal
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Hull City
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Written summary
Written by gpt-5.6-terra from the numbers above, which it cannot add to or override.
The model assigns Arsenal a 72.0% win probability, with the draw at 21.8% and Hull City at 6.3%. Expected goals are 1.78 for Arsenal and 0.35 for Hull. Over 2.5 goals is rated at 35.9%, while both teams scoring is 25.3%. Arsenal have won 4 of 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4, with 8.8 xG for and 6.8 against. Hull have no wins in 5, with 3 draws and 2 losses; they have scored 6, conceded 8, and posted 6.6 xG for against 9.4 conceded. Arsenal’s Elo is 1759 versus 1508, and their points per game are 2.4 versus 0.6. The market is more bullish on Arsenal: 83.1% versus the model’s 72.0%. It gives the draw 12.2% and Hull 4.7%, below the model’s 21.8% and 6.3%. The scorecard says the model does not beat the market. There are no listed missing players, but 16 Arsenal and 17 Hull absentees have unmeasured output shares.
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
| Metric | Model | Market | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranked probability score | 0.2047 | 0.1965 | +0.0082 |
| Log loss | 0.9882 | 0.9623 | +0.0259 |
| Brier | 0.5883 | 0.5711 | +0.0172 |
| Accuracy | 52.5% | 54.8% | −2.3 pp |
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean