Newcastle v Everton

The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Written by gpt-5.6-terra from the numbers above, which it cannot add to or override.

The model rates Newcastle at 35.1%, the draw at 34.4%, and Everton at 30.4%. Expected goals are low at 0.98 for Newcastle and 0.9 for Everton. That is reflected in a 29.3% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38.1% chance of both teams scoring. The market is notably more positive on Newcastle, at 43.4%, than the model’s 35.1%. It gives the draw 27.1%, below the model’s 34.4%, while Everton are close at 29.4% versus 30.4%. The scorecard says this model does not beat the closing market. Newcastle have taken 1.2 points per game across five matches, with 6 goals scored and 10 conceded; their xG figures are 6.6 and 9.2. Everton have 1.0 point per game, scoring 3 and conceding 6, despite 8.3 xG for. The last 10 meetings are level at four wins each and two draws. There are 12 Newcastle absentees whose attacking-output share cannot be measured.

Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.