Liverpool v Arsenal
Match result
The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
27 markets
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
What is driving this
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Both sides
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): LIV 3, drawn 5, ARS 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
| Market | Selection | Best | Book | Implied | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| h2h | away | 2.63 | 1xBet | 38.0% | 49 |
| h2h | draw | 4.10 | Betfair | 24.4% | 49 |
| h2h | home | 6.10 | Marathon Bet | 16.4% | 49 |
Liverpool
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Arsenal
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Written summary
Written by gpt-5.6-terra from the numbers above, which it cannot add to or override.
The model gives Arsenal the highest win probability at 39.6%, ahead of the draw at 36.1% and Liverpool at 24.3%. Expected goals are low at 0.72 for Liverpool and 1.0 for Arsenal. That is reflected in a 24.7% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 33.2% probability of both teams scoring. Arsenal’s recent record is stronger: 4 wins from 5, 2.4 points per game and an Elo rating of 1759, versus Liverpool’s 3 wins, 2.0 points per game and 1644 Elo. Liverpool’s last 5 xG figures are 6.7 for and 5.6 against; Arsenal’s are 8.8 and 6.8. Five of the last 10 meetings were draws. The market is more favourable to Liverpool than the model, assigning them 32.9% versus 24.3%, and less favourable to the draw, at 28.4% versus 36.1%. It is slightly less favourable to Arsenal, at 38.7% versus 39.6%. No named absences are listed, though 15 Liverpool and 16 Arsenal absentees have unmeasured output shares. The scorecard says the model does not beat the closing market.
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
| Metric | Model | Market | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranked probability score | 0.2047 | 0.1965 | +0.0082 |
| Log loss | 0.9882 | 0.9623 | +0.0259 |
| Brier | 0.5883 | 0.5711 | +0.0172 |
| Accuracy | 52.5% | 54.8% | −2.3 pp |
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean