Coventry City v Sunderland
Match result
The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
27 markets
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Coventry City has only 8 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Coventry City 8 · Sunderland 46What is driving this
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Both sides
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): COV 1, drawn 1, SUN 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
| Market | Selection | Best | Book | Implied | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| h2h | away | 2.48 | Betfair | 40.3% | 49 |
| h2h | draw | 3.50 | Unibet (SE) | 28.6% | 49 |
| h2h | home | 3.30 | Betfair Exchange | 30.3% | 49 |
Coventry City
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Sunderland
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Written summary
Written by gpt-5.6-terra from the numbers above, which it cannot add to or override.
Sunderland lead the model’s 1X2 ratings at 41.9%, with the draw at 34.8% and Coventry City at 23.3%. The market is close on Sunderland at 41.2%, but rates Coventry higher at 30.1% and the draw lower at 28.7%. The model therefore leans more towards a draw and less towards a Coventry win than the market. Expected goals are 0.7 for Coventry and 1.04 for Sunderland. That supports a low-scoring profile: over 2.5 goals is rated at 25.3%, while both teams scoring is 33.3%. Coventry’s last 5 matches produced 6 goals and 10 conceded, from 5.0 xG and 7.8 xG against. Sunderland have 3 scored and 11 conceded, with 7.2 xG for and 11.8 against. Neither side has a listed missing player with a measured attacking-output share. There are 10 further unmeasured absentees for each team, so their effect cannot be quantified. The model scorecard does not beat the closing market.
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
| Metric | Model | Market | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranked probability score | 0.2047 | 0.1965 | +0.0082 |
| Log loss | 0.9882 | 0.9623 | +0.0259 |
| Brier | 0.5883 | 0.5711 | +0.0172 |
| Accuracy | 52.5% | 54.8% | −2.3 pp |
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean