The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt
CHE
41.4%2.42−7.3 pp
Draw
31.1%3.21+5.6 pp
MUN
27.5%3.63+1.6 pp
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Chelsea37.2%2.69
Draw32.4%3.09
Man Utd30.5%3.28
Double chance
Chelsea or draw69.5%1.44
Chelsea or Man Utd67.6%1.48
Draw or Man Utd62.8%1.59
Draw no bet
Chelsea54.9%1.82
Man Utd45.1%2.22
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Chelsea23.7%4.22
Man Utd19.1%5.24
Clean sheet
Chelsea37.5%2.67
Man Utd32.9%3.04
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players34% home against 16% away xG missing
Favours MUN. 9 out and 5 doubtful for CHE, 6 out and 9 doubtful for MUN; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form1.40 against 0.60 points per game
Favours CHE. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LWWLD against LDDDL
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours CHE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Underlying expected goals+0.21 net xG per match
Favours CHE. CHE -0.39, MUN -0.60 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap-22 Elo
Favours MUN. CHE 1566 against MUN 1588, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
CHE
LWWLD
12 Sept – 24 Oct
MUN
LDDDL
13 Sept – 25 Oct
1.40Points per game0.60
9Goals for3
8Goals against7
5.53Expected goals5.86
1,566Elo1,588
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): CHE 2, drawn 4, MUN 4. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
Market
Selection
Best
Book
Implied
N
h2h
away
4.30
Betfair Exchange
23.3%
49
h2h
draw
4.10
Betfair Exchange
24.4%
49
h2h
home
2.33
1xBet
42.9%
49
Ch 06 · Availability
Chelsea
34.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
João PedroFWDinjured0%22.7% xG
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
LacroixDEFinjured0%3.0% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
JamesDEFinjured0%2.5% xG
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ChavarriaDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Unspecified injury - Expected back 31 Oct
HatoDEFinjured0%0.1% xG
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
MartinezGKPinjured0%
Head injury - Unknown return date
AnselminoDEFinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
EmeghaFWDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
GittensMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
PalmerMIDdoubtful75%18.7% xG
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
and 4 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Man Utd
16.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
DorguMIDinjured0%5.4% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
ŠeškoFWDinjured0%2.7% xG
Shin injury - Unknown return date
MartinezDEFsuspended0%1.7% xG
Suspended until 22 Nov
ShawDEFinjured0%0.2% xG
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
HeatonGKPinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
UgarteMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
RashfordMIDdoubtful75%5.4% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
AmadMIDdoubtful75%5.0% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
MainooMIDdoubtful25%2.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 25% chance of playing
MountMIDdoubtful75%1.6% xG
Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
and 5 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
generated text
Written by gpt-5.6-terra from the numbers above, which it cannot add to or override.
The model assigns Chelsea a 44.4% win probability, with the draw at 30.1% and Man Utd at 25.5%. Expected goals are 1.34 for Chelsea and 0.95 for Man Utd. It places over 2.5 goals at 40.1% and both teams scoring at 46.1%, pointing to a relatively low-scoring profile.
The market is more favourable to Chelsea, pricing their win probability at 51.6% against the model’s 44.4%. It gives the draw 24.6% and Man Utd 23.8%, below the model’s 30.1% and 25.5%. Chelsea have 1.4 points per game across 5 matches; Man Utd have 0.6. Chelsea’s recent xG figures are 5.5 for and 7.5 against, compared with 5.9 and 8.9 for Man Utd.
No players are listed as missing. There are 14 Chelsea and 15 Man Utd further absentees whose attacking-output shares could not be measured, so their effect is unknown. The model scorecard does not beat the closing market.
Ch 09 · Divergence
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
h2h drawmodel 31.1% vs 4.10 (Betfair Exchange)+27.6 ppstake 2.0%medium confidence
h2h awaymodel 27.5% vs 4.30 (Betfair Exchange)+18.4 ppstake 1.4%medium confidence
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean