No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Sunderland40.8%2.45
Draw28.0%3.57
Leeds31.2%3.21
Double chance
Sunderland or draw68.8%1.45
Sunderland or Leeds72.0%1.39
Draw or Leeds59.2%1.69
Draw no bet
Sunderland56.7%1.76
Leeds43.3%2.31
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Sunderland22.6%4.42
Leeds16.8%5.94
Clean sheet
Sunderland31.2%3.21
Leeds25.4%3.94
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals+0.95 net xG per match
Favours SUN. SUN +0.44, LEE -0.51 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours SUN. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Recent form2.00 against 1.60 points per game
Favours SUN. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WLWWD against DWLWD
Team rating gap+30 Elo
Favours SUN. SUN 1536 against LEE 1506, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players0% home against 1% away xG missing
Favours SUN. 1 out and 1 doubtful for SUN, 1 out and 2 doubtful for LEE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
SUN
WLWWD
9 May – 30 Aug
LEE
DWLWD
11 May – 30 Aug
2.00Points per game1.60
7Goals for4
4Goals against5
7.59Expected goals6.18
1,536Elo1,506
Head to head over 4 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): SUN 1, drawn 2, LEE 1. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Sunderland
0.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
AdingraMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
DiarraMIDdoubtful75%1.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Leeds
0.8% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Mateo JosephFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
RodonDEFdoubtful50%1.6% xG
Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
GruevMIDdoubtful25%
Knee injury - 25% chance of playing
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean