No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Man Utd46.8%2.14
Draw25.3%3.96
Bournemouth28.0%3.57
Double chance
Man Utd or draw72.0%1.39
Man Utd or Bournemouth74.7%1.34
Draw or Bournemouth53.2%1.88
Draw no bet
Man Utd62.6%1.60
Bournemouth37.4%2.67
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Man Utd22.5%4.45
Bournemouth12.6%7.92
Clean sheet
Man Utd28.4%3.52
Bournemouth18.5%5.40
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals+1.68 net xG per match
Favours MUN. MUN +1.34, BOU -0.34 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form2.00 against 1.20 points per game
Favours MUN. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WLWWD against DLDDW
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours MUN. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap+31 Elo
Favours MUN. MUN 1617 against BOU 1586, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing
5 out and 1 doubtful for MUN, 4 out and 0 doubtful for BOU; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
MUN
WLWWD
9 May – 30 Aug
BOU
WDDLD
9 May – 29 Aug
2.00Points per game1.20
11Goals for5
6Goals against5
13.79Expected goals7.02
1,617Elo1,586
Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): MUN 2, drawn 4, BOU 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Man Utd
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
AmadMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
BalebaMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Expected back 19 Sep
De LigtDEFinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
HeatonGKPinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
UgarteMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
MountMIDdoubtful75%
Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Bournemouth
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
AdliMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
J.AraujoDEFinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Kroupi.JrMIDinjured0%
Foot injury - Unknown return date
MilosavljevićDEFinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean