No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Thin sample
Hull City has only 2 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Hull City 2 · Brentford 149
Match result
Hull City30.8%3.25
Draw25.9%3.87
Brentford43.4%2.31
Double chance
Hull City or draw56.6%1.77
Hull City or Brentford74.1%1.35
Draw or Brentford69.2%1.44
Draw no bet
Hull City41.5%2.41
Brentford58.5%1.71
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Hull City15.1%6.62
Brentford21.7%4.61
Clean sheet
Hull City21.4%4.68
Brentford28.0%3.58
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Recent form2.00 against 1.20 points per game
Favours HUL. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWWLD against DWDDL
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours HUL. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap-35 Elo
Favours BRE. HUL 1523 against BRE 1558, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals+0.15 net xG per match
Favours HUL. HUL -0.20, BRE -0.35 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing
Favours HUL. 6 out and 2 doubtful for HUL, 2 out and 1 doubtful for BRE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
HUL · incl. Championship
WWWLD
21 Apr – 29 Aug
BRE
LDDWD
9 May – 30 Aug
2.00Points per game1.20
8Goals for7
5Goals against7
1.96Expected goals (2 of 5)9.33
1,523Elo1,558
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Hull City
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
ButlandGKPinjured0%
Arm injury - Unknown return date
GelhardtMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Expected back 5 Sep
GyabiMIDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
HughesDEFinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
MatazoMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ZambranoMIDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
CoyleDEFdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
CrooksMIDdoubtful75%
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Brentford
0.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MilamboMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Van den BergDEFinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
JensenMIDdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean