No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Crystal Palace26.8%3.73
Draw27.7%3.62
Newcastle45.5%2.20
Double chance
Crystal Palace or draw54.5%1.83
Crystal Palace or Newcastle72.3%1.38
Draw or Newcastle73.2%1.37
Draw no bet
Crystal Palace37.1%2.70
Newcastle62.9%1.59
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Crystal Palace14.3%6.97
Newcastle25.5%3.92
Clean sheet
Crystal Palace23.0%4.34
Newcastle34.2%2.92
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players26% home against 3% away xG missing
Favours NEW. 4 out and 0 doubtful for CRY, 4 out and 0 doubtful for NEW; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form0.20 against 1.60 points per game
Favours NEW. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLLDL against WDLWD
Underlying expected goals-0.65 net xG per match
Favours NEW. CRY -1.00, NEW -0.35 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours CRY. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap-52 Elo
Favours NEW. CRY 1503 against NEW 1555, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
CRY
LLLDL
13 May – 28 Aug
NEW
DWLDW
10 May – 29 Aug
0.20Points per game1.60
4Goals for8
13Goals against6
6.42Expected goals6.63
1,503Elo1,555
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): CRY 2, drawn 4, NEW 4. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Crystal Palace
26.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MatetaFWDinjured0%26.4% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct
Chadi RiadDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
SarrMIDinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
UcheFWDunavailable0%
has returned to Getafe CF
Ch 06 · Availability
Newcastle
2.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
OsulaFWDinjured0%2.6% xG
Foot injury - Unknown return date
BurnDEFinjured0%
Ankle injury - Expected back 14 Sep
JoelintonMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
LivramentoDEFinjured0%
Calf injury - Unknown return date
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean