No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Thin sample
Coventry City has only 2 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Coventry City 2 · Fulham 149
Match result
Coventry City23.1%4.34
Draw24.7%4.05
Fulham52.2%1.92
Double chance
Coventry City or draw47.8%2.09
Coventry City or Fulham75.3%1.33
Draw or Fulham76.9%1.30
Draw no bet
Coventry City30.6%3.27
Fulham69.4%1.44
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Coventry City11.4%8.77
Fulham28.3%3.54
Clean sheet
Coventry City17.8%5.63
Fulham34.6%2.89
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Recent form1.80 against 0.80 points per game
Favours COV. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLWWW against LLWDL
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours COV. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap-29 Elo
Favours FUL. COV 1486 against FUL 1514, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals-0.12 net xG per match
Favours FUL. COV -0.11, FUL +0.00 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing
3 out and 0 doubtful for COV, 1 out and 1 doubtful for FUL; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
COV · incl. Championship
LLWWW
21 Apr – 29 Aug
FUL
LDWLL
9 May – 30 Aug
1.80Points per game0.80
12Goals for5
6Goals against6
1.74Expected goals (2 of 5)6.90
1,486Elo1,514
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Coventry City
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Kesler-HaydenDEFinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
WoolfendenDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
WrightFWDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Ch 06 · Availability
Fulham
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
CairneyMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
De FougerollesDEFdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean