Fixture 73scheduledGW 8

Arsenal v Everton

Sat 24 Oct 14:00Zmodel prices only

No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Arsenal63.6%1.57

Draw23.2%4.32

Everton13.2%7.57

Double chance

Arsenal or draw86.8%1.15

Arsenal or Everton76.8%1.30

Draw or Everton36.4%2.75

Draw no bet

Arsenal82.8%1.21

Everton17.2%5.82

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Arsenal41.0%2.44

Everton7.6%13.23

Clean sheet

Arsenal49.5%2.02

Everton16.1%6.22

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Underlying expected goals+2.05 net xG per match

Favours ARS. ARS +1.32, EVE -0.73 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Recent form3.00 against 1.00 points per game

Favours ARS. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWWWW against DWLLD

Team rating gap+218 Elo

Favours ARS. ARS 1751 against EVE 1532, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours ARS. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing

3 out and 0 doubtful for ARS, 1 out and 0 doubtful for EVE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

ARS

WWWWW

10 May – 31 Aug

EVE

DLLWD

10 May – 29 Aug

3.00Points per game1.00

8Goals for6

1Goals against7

9.94Expected goals6.81

1,751Elo1,532

Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): ARS 6, drawn 2, EVE 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.

Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.

Ch 06 · Availability

Arsenal

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

J.TimberDEFinjured0%

Groin injury - Unknown return date

NelsonMIDunavailable0%

has departed the club as a free agent.

SalibaDEFinjured0%

Back injury - Unknown return date

Ch 06 · Availability

Everton

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

NørgaardMIDinjured0%

Groin injury - Unknown return date

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean