No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Aston Villa25.9%3.85
Draw24.8%4.03
Man City49.2%2.03
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw50.8%1.97
Aston Villa or Man City75.2%1.33
Draw or Man City74.1%1.35
Draw no bet
Aston Villa34.5%2.90
Man City65.5%1.53
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Aston Villa11.6%8.60
Man City23.9%4.18
Clean sheet
Aston Villa17.4%5.74
Man City29.7%3.37
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals-1.26 net xG per match
Favours MCI. AVL -0.58, MCI +0.69 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap-131 Elo
Favours MCI. AVL 1597 against MCI 1728, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Recent form1.40 against 2.00 points per game
Favours MCI. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLWWD against WWLDW
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours AVL. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing
4 out and 0 doubtful for AVL, 1 out and 1 doubtful for MCI; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
AVL
LLWWD
10 May – 31 Aug
MCI
WDLWW
13 May – 28 Aug
1.40Points per game2.00
8Goals for11
10Goals against5
7.28Expected goals9.65
1,597Elo1,728
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): AVL 4, drawn 1, MCI 5. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Aston Villa
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
GomesMIDsuspended0%
Suspended until 19 Sep
MadjoFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
ManzambiMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
OnanaMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Ch 06 · Availability
Man City
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
DokuMIDinjured0%
Calf injury - Expected back 5 Sep
Matheus N.DEFdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean