No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Ipswich Town23.9%4.19
Draw24.6%4.06
Nott'm Forest51.5%1.94
Double chance
Ipswich Town or draw48.5%2.06
Ipswich Town or Nott'm Forest75.4%1.33
Draw or Nott'm Forest76.1%1.31
Draw no bet
Ipswich Town31.7%3.16
Nott'm Forest68.3%1.46
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Ipswich Town10.9%9.21
Nott'm Forest25.7%3.89
Clean sheet
Ipswich Town16.9%5.93
Nott'm Forest31.7%3.15
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Team rating gap-123 Elo
Favours NFO. IPS 1396 against NFO 1519, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Recent form1.60 against 0.60 points per game
Favours IPS. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LWWDD against DLDLD
Underlying expected goals-0.51 net xG per match
Favours NFO. IPS -0.53, NFO -0.02 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours IPS. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Unavailable players5% home against 1% away xG missing
Favours NFO. 3 out and 2 doubtful for IPS, 2 out and 0 doubtful for NFO; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
IPS · incl. Championship
LWWDD
25 Apr – 30 Aug
NFO
DLDLD
10 May – 29 Aug
1.60Points per game0.60
9Goals for6
8Goals against8
3.39Expected goals (2 of 5)8.90
1,396Elo1,519
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): IPS 0, drawn 0, NFO 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Ipswich Town
5.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MatusiwaMIDinjured0%
Muscular injury - Unknown return date
PhilogeneMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
TaylorMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
EmersonnFWDdoubtful75%21.3% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
FlorentinoMIDdoubtful75%
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Nott'm Forest
1.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
I.SangaréMIDinjured0%1.0% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
SavonaDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean