No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Nott'm Forest20.1%4.97
Draw25.4%3.93
Arsenal54.4%1.84
Double chance
Nott'm Forest or draw45.6%2.19
Nott'm Forest or Arsenal74.6%1.34
Draw or Arsenal79.9%1.25
Draw no bet
Nott'm Forest27.0%3.70
Arsenal73.0%1.37
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Nott'm Forest10.6%9.44
Arsenal31.4%3.18
Clean sheet
Nott'm Forest18.5%5.40
Arsenal39.4%2.54
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Recent form0.60 against 3.00 points per game
Favours ARS. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLDLD against WWWWW
Underlying expected goals-1.34 net xG per match
Favours ARS. NFO -0.02, ARS +1.32 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap-232 Elo
Favours ARS. NFO 1519 against ARS 1751, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours NFO. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Unavailable players1% home against 0% away xG missing
Favours ARS. 2 out and 0 doubtful for NFO, 3 out and 0 doubtful for ARS; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
NFO
DLDLD
10 May – 29 Aug
ARS
WWWWW
10 May – 31 Aug
0.60Points per game3.00
6Goals for8
8Goals against1
8.90Expected goals9.94
1,519Elo1,751
Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): NFO 1, drawn 2, ARS 5. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Nott'm Forest
1.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
I.SangaréMIDinjured0%1.0% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
SavonaDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Ch 06 · Availability
Arsenal
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
J.TimberDEFinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
NelsonMIDunavailable0%
has departed the club as a free agent.
SalibaDEFinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean