No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Leeds33.3%3.00
Draw26.1%3.83
Man Utd40.6%2.46
Double chance
Leeds or draw59.4%1.68
Leeds or Man Utd73.9%1.35
Draw or Man Utd66.7%1.50
Draw no bet
Leeds45.1%2.22
Man Utd54.9%1.82
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Leeds15.5%6.43
Man Utd19.4%5.16
Clean sheet
Leeds21.8%4.59
Man Utd25.6%3.90
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals-1.85 net xG per match
Favours MUN. LEE -0.51, MUN +1.34 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap-111 Elo
Favours MUN. LEE 1506 against MUN 1617, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours LEE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Recent form1.60 against 2.00 points per game
Favours MUN. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DWLWD against WLWWD
Unavailable players1% home against 0% away xG missing
Favours MUN. 1 out and 2 doubtful for LEE, 5 out and 1 doubtful for MUN; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
LEE
DWLWD
11 May – 30 Aug
MUN
DWWLW
9 May – 30 Aug
1.60Points per game2.00
4Goals for11
5Goals against6
6.18Expected goals13.79
1,506Elo1,617
Head to head over 6 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): LEE 1, drawn 2, MUN 3. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Leeds
0.8% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Mateo JosephFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
RodonDEFdoubtful50%1.6% xG
Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
GruevMIDdoubtful25%
Knee injury - 25% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Man Utd
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
AmadMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
BalebaMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Expected back 19 Sep
De LigtDEFinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
HeatonGKPinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
UgarteMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
MountMIDdoubtful75%
Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean