No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Brighton49.8%2.01
Draw27.5%3.64
Crystal Palace22.7%4.40
Double chance
Brighton or draw77.3%1.29
Brighton or Crystal Palace72.5%1.38
Draw or Crystal Palace50.2%1.99
Draw no bet
Brighton68.6%1.46
Crystal Palace31.4%3.19
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Brighton29.5%3.39
Crystal Palace12.6%7.94
Clean sheet
Brighton38.9%2.57
Crystal Palace22.0%4.54
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals+1.65 net xG per match
Favours BHA. BHA +0.65, CRY -1.00 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Unavailable players14% home against 26% away xG missing
Favours BHA. 4 out and 3 doubtful for BHA, 4 out and 0 doubtful for CRY; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form1.20 against 0.20 points per game
Favours BHA. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LWLLW against LLLDL
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours BHA. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap+59 Elo
Favours BHA. BHA 1562 against CRY 1503, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
BHA
LWLLW
9 May – 30 Aug
CRY
LDLLL
13 May – 28 Aug
1.20Points per game0.20
10Goals for4
8Goals against13
10.95Expected goals6.42
1,562Elo1,503
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): BHA 2, drawn 5, CRY 3. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Brighton
14.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
FergusonFWDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct
MintehMIDinjured0%
Leg injury - Expected back 28 Nov
MitomaMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
TzimasFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
HinshelwoodMIDdoubtful50%27.0% xG
Unspecified injury - 50% chance of playing
AyariMIDdoubtful75%2.1% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
GeorginioFWDdoubtful75%1.5% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Crystal Palace
26.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MatetaFWDinjured0%26.4% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct
Chadi RiadDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
SarrMIDinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
UcheFWDunavailable0%
has returned to Getafe CF
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean