No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Bournemouth47.1%2.12
Draw27.2%3.67
Sunderland25.6%3.90
Double chance
Bournemouth or draw74.4%1.34
Bournemouth or Sunderland72.8%1.37
Draw or Sunderland52.9%1.89
Draw no bet
Bournemouth64.8%1.54
Sunderland35.2%2.84
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Bournemouth26.7%3.74
Sunderland13.8%7.26
Clean sheet
Bournemouth35.2%2.84
Sunderland22.3%4.49
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals-0.78 net xG per match
Favours SUN. BOU -0.34, SUN +0.44 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form1.20 against 2.00 points per game
Favours SUN. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLDDW against WLWWD
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours BOU. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap+50 Elo
Favours BOU. BOU 1586 against SUN 1536, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing
Favours BOU. 4 out and 0 doubtful for BOU, 1 out and 1 doubtful for SUN; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
BOU
DLDDW
9 May – 29 Aug
SUN
DWWLW
9 May – 30 Aug
1.20Points per game2.00
5Goals for7
5Goals against4
7.02Expected goals7.59
1,586Elo1,536
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): BOU 0, drawn 1, SUN 1. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Bournemouth
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
AdliMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
J.AraujoDEFinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Kroupi.JrMIDinjured0%
Foot injury - Unknown return date
MilosavljevićDEFinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
Ch 06 · Availability
Sunderland
0.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
AdingraMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
DiarraMIDdoubtful75%1.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean