No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Newcastle46.3%2.16
Draw24.8%4.03
Aston Villa28.9%3.46
Double chance
Newcastle or draw71.1%1.41
Newcastle or Aston Villa75.2%1.33
Draw or Aston Villa53.7%1.86
Draw no bet
Newcastle61.6%1.62
Aston Villa38.4%2.60
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Newcastle21.2%4.71
Aston Villa12.4%8.04
Clean sheet
Newcastle26.6%3.75
Aston Villa17.8%5.61
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours NEW. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap-42 Elo
Favours AVL. NEW 1555 against AVL 1597, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals+0.22 net xG per match
Favours NEW. NEW -0.35, AVL -0.58 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Unavailable players3% home against 0% away xG missing
Favours AVL. 4 out and 0 doubtful for NEW, 4 out and 0 doubtful for AVL; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form1.60 against 1.40 points per game
Favours NEW. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WDLWD against LLWWD
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
NEW
WDLWD
10 May – 29 Aug
AVL
DWWLL
10 May – 31 Aug
1.60Points per game1.40
8Goals for8
6Goals against10
6.63Expected goals7.28
1,555Elo1,597
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): NEW 5, drawn 1, AVL 4. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Newcastle
2.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
OsulaFWDinjured0%2.6% xG
Foot injury - Unknown return date
BurnDEFinjured0%
Ankle injury - Expected back 14 Sep
JoelintonMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
LivramentoDEFinjured0%
Calf injury - Unknown return date
Ch 06 · Availability
Aston Villa
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
GomesMIDsuspended0%
Suspended until 19 Sep
MadjoFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
ManzambiMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
OnanaMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean