No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Man City82.5%1.21
Draw11.7%8.54
Ipswich Town5.8%17.18
Double chance
Man City or draw94.2%1.06
Man City or Ipswich Town88.3%1.13
Draw or Ipswich Town17.5%5.71
Draw no bet
Man City93.4%1.07
Ipswich Town6.6%15.17
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Man City44.1%2.27
Ipswich Town2.1%46.71
Clean sheet
Man City46.5%2.15
Ipswich Town4.6%21.79
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Team rating gap+331 Elo
Favours MCI. MCI 1728 against IPS 1396, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals+1.22 net xG per match
Favours MCI. MCI +0.69, IPS -0.53 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Unavailable players0% home against 5% away xG missing
Favours MCI. 1 out and 1 doubtful for MCI, 3 out and 2 doubtful for IPS; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours MCI. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Recent form2.00 against 1.60 points per game
Favours MCI. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWLDW against LWWDD
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
MCI
WWLDW
13 May – 28 Aug
IPS · incl. Championship
DDWWL
25 Apr – 30 Aug
2.00Points per game1.60
11Goals for9
5Goals against8
9.65Expected goals (2 of 5)3.39
1,728Elo1,396
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): MCI 2, drawn 0, IPS 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Man City
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
DokuMIDinjured0%
Calf injury - Expected back 5 Sep
Matheus N.DEFdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Ipswich Town
5.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MatusiwaMIDinjured0%
Muscular injury - Unknown return date
PhilogeneMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
TaylorMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
EmersonnFWDdoubtful75%21.3% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
FlorentinoMIDdoubtful75%
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean