No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Brentford33.5%2.99
Draw24.7%4.05
Liverpool41.8%2.39
Double chance
Brentford or draw58.2%1.72
Brentford or Liverpool75.3%1.33
Draw or Liverpool66.5%1.50
Draw no bet
Brentford44.5%2.25
Liverpool55.5%1.80
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Brentford13.8%7.24
Liverpool17.8%5.60
Clean sheet
Brentford18.7%5.35
Liverpool22.7%4.40
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals-0.46 net xG per match
Favours LIV. BRE -0.35, LIV +0.10 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap-66 Elo
Favours LIV. BRE 1558 against LIV 1624, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours BRE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Recent form1.20 against 0.80 points per game
Favours BRE. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DWDDL against DDDLD
Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing
Favours LIV. 2 out and 1 doubtful for BRE, 7 out and 0 doubtful for LIV; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
BRE
DWDDL
9 May – 30 Aug
LIV
DLDDD
9 May – 29 Aug
1.20Points per game0.80
7Goals for8
7Goals against10
9.33Expected goals9.58
1,558Elo1,624
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): BRE 2, drawn 2, LIV 6. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Brentford
0.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MilamboMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Van den BergDEFinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
JensenMIDdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Liverpool
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
BradleyDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ChiesaMIDinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
DannsFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
EkitikéFWDinjured0%
Achilles injury - Unknown return date
GomezDEFinjured0%
Muscular injury - Unknown return date
JarosGKPinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
LeoniDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean