Fixture 61scheduledGW 7

Everton v Chelsea

Sat 17 Oct 11:30Zmodel prices only

No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Everton34.1%2.93

Draw28.1%3.56

Chelsea37.7%2.65

Double chance

Everton or draw62.3%1.61

Everton or Chelsea71.9%1.39

Draw or Chelsea65.9%1.52

Draw no bet

Everton47.5%2.11

Chelsea52.5%1.91

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Everton18.4%5.44

Chelsea20.5%4.87

Clean sheet

Everton26.9%3.71

Chelsea29.1%3.44

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Underlying expected goals-0.87 net xG per match

Favours CHE. EVE -0.73, CHE +0.14 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Recent form1.00 against 2.00 points per game

Favours CHE. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DWLLD against WWLWD

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours EVE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Team rating gap-45 Elo

Favours CHE. EVE 1532 against CHE 1577, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing

1 out and 0 doubtful for EVE, 0 out and 3 doubtful for CHE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

EVE

DWLLD

10 May – 29 Aug

CHE

DWLWW

9 May – 30 Aug

1.00Points per game2.00

6Goals for11

7Goals against9

6.81Expected goals9.02

1,532Elo1,577

Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): EVE 3, drawn 3, CHE 4. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.

Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.

Ch 06 · Availability

Everton

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

NørgaardMIDinjured0%

Groin injury - Unknown return date

Ch 06 · Availability

Chelsea

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

CaicedoMIDdoubtful75%

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

HendersonMIDdoubtful75%

Wrist injury - 75% chance of playing

PalestraDEFdoubtful75%

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean