No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Thin sample
Coventry City has only 2 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Coventry City 2 · Newcastle 149
Match result
Coventry City22.6%4.43
Draw24.5%4.08
Newcastle52.9%1.89
Double chance
Coventry City or draw47.1%2.12
Coventry City or Newcastle75.5%1.32
Draw or Newcastle77.4%1.29
Draw no bet
Coventry City29.9%3.35
Newcastle70.1%1.43
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Coventry City11.0%9.12
Newcastle28.5%3.51
Clean sheet
Coventry City17.2%5.82
Newcastle34.7%2.88
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Team rating gap-69 Elo
Favours NEW. COV 1486 against NEW 1555, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours COV. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Underlying expected goals+0.24 net xG per match
Favours COV. COV -0.11, NEW -0.35 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Unavailable players0% home against 3% away xG missing
Favours COV. 3 out and 0 doubtful for COV, 4 out and 0 doubtful for NEW; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form1.80 against 1.60 points per game
Favours COV. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLWWW against WDLWD
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
COV · incl. Championship
LLWWW
21 Apr – 29 Aug
NEW
DWLDW
10 May – 29 Aug
1.80Points per game1.60
12Goals for8
6Goals against6
1.74Expected goals (2 of 5)6.63
1,486Elo1,555
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Coventry City
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Kesler-HaydenDEFinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
WoolfendenDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
WrightFWDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Ch 06 · Availability
Newcastle
2.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
OsulaFWDinjured0%2.6% xG
Foot injury - Unknown return date
BurnDEFinjured0%
Ankle injury - Expected back 14 Sep
JoelintonMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
LivramentoDEFinjured0%
Calf injury - Unknown return date
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean