No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Liverpool33.9%2.95
Draw25.0%4.00
Man City41.1%2.43
Double chance
Liverpool or draw58.9%1.70
Liverpool or Man City75.0%1.33
Draw or Man City66.1%1.51
Draw no bet
Liverpool45.2%2.21
Man City54.8%1.83
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Liverpool14.4%6.96
Man City17.9%5.59
Clean sheet
Liverpool19.5%5.13
Man City23.0%4.35
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Recent form0.80 against 2.00 points per game
Favours MCI. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DDDLD against WWLDW
Underlying expected goals-0.58 net xG per match
Favours MCI. LIV +0.10, MCI +0.69 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap-103 Elo
Favours MCI. LIV 1624 against MCI 1728, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours LIV. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing
7 out and 0 doubtful for LIV, 1 out and 1 doubtful for MCI; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
LIV
DDDLD
9 May – 29 Aug
MCI
WDLWW
13 May – 28 Aug
0.80Points per game2.00
8Goals for11
10Goals against5
9.58Expected goals9.65
1,624Elo1,728
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): LIV 3, drawn 4, MCI 3. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Liverpool
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
BradleyDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ChiesaMIDinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
DannsFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
EkitikéFWDinjured0%
Achilles injury - Unknown return date
GomezDEFinjured0%
Muscular injury - Unknown return date
JarosGKPinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
LeoniDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Ch 06 · Availability
Man City
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
DokuMIDinjured0%
Calf injury - Expected back 5 Sep
Matheus N.DEFdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean