No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Sunderland36.1%2.77
Draw28.7%3.49
Brighton35.2%2.84
Double chance
Sunderland or draw64.8%1.54
Sunderland or Brighton71.3%1.40
Draw or Brighton63.9%1.57
Draw no bet
Sunderland50.7%1.97
Brighton49.3%2.03
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Sunderland20.1%4.97
Brighton19.6%5.11
Clean sheet
Sunderland29.3%3.41
Brighton28.7%3.48
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players0% home against 14% away xG missing
Favours SUN. 1 out and 1 doubtful for SUN, 4 out and 3 doubtful for BHA; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form2.00 against 1.20 points per game
Favours SUN. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WLWWD against LWLLW
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours SUN. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Underlying expected goals-0.21 net xG per match
Favours BHA. SUN +0.44, BHA +0.65 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap-26 Elo
Favours BHA. SUN 1536 against BHA 1562, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
SUN
WLWWD
9 May – 30 Aug
BHA
WLLWL
9 May – 30 Aug
2.00Points per game1.20
7Goals for10
4Goals against8
7.59Expected goals10.95
1,536Elo1,562
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): SUN 0, drawn 1, BHA 1. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Sunderland
0.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
AdingraMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
DiarraMIDdoubtful75%1.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Brighton
14.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
FergusonFWDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct
MintehMIDinjured0%
Leg injury - Expected back 28 Nov
MitomaMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
TzimasFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
HinshelwoodMIDdoubtful50%27.0% xG
Unspecified injury - 50% chance of playing
AyariMIDdoubtful75%2.1% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
GeorginioFWDdoubtful75%1.5% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean