No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Chelsea48.2%2.08
Draw24.8%4.03
Bournemouth27.0%3.70
Double chance
Chelsea or draw73.0%1.37
Chelsea or Bournemouth75.2%1.33
Draw or Bournemouth51.8%1.93
Draw no bet
Chelsea64.0%1.56
Bournemouth36.0%2.78
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Chelsea22.8%4.39
Bournemouth11.9%8.41
Clean sheet
Chelsea28.4%3.52
Bournemouth17.5%5.72
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Recent form2.00 against 1.20 points per game
Favours CHE. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWLWD against DLDDW
Underlying expected goals+0.48 net xG per match
Favours CHE. CHE +0.14, BOU -0.34 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours CHE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap-9 Elo
Favours BOU. CHE 1577 against BOU 1586, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing
0 out and 3 doubtful for CHE, 4 out and 0 doubtful for BOU; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
CHE
WWLWD
9 May – 30 Aug
BOU
WDDLD
9 May – 29 Aug
2.00Points per game1.20
11Goals for5
9Goals against5
9.02Expected goals7.02
1,577Elo1,586
Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): CHE 4, drawn 4, BOU 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Chelsea
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
CaicedoMIDdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
HendersonMIDdoubtful75%
Wrist injury - 75% chance of playing
PalestraDEFdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Bournemouth
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
AdliMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
J.AraujoDEFinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Kroupi.JrMIDinjured0%
Foot injury - Unknown return date
MilosavljevićDEFinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean