No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Arsenal68.6%1.46
Draw19.7%5.08
Leeds11.7%8.51
Double chance
Arsenal or draw88.3%1.13
Arsenal or Leeds80.3%1.25
Draw or Leeds31.4%3.18
Draw no bet
Arsenal85.4%1.17
Leeds14.6%6.84
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Arsenal39.8%2.51
Leeds5.7%17.55
Clean sheet
Arsenal45.5%2.20
Leeds11.4%8.80
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals+1.82 net xG per match
Favours ARS. ARS +1.32, LEE -0.51 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap+245 Elo
Favours ARS. ARS 1751 against LEE 1506, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Recent form3.00 against 1.60 points per game
Favours ARS. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWWWW against DWLWD
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours ARS. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Unavailable players0% home against 1% away xG missing
Favours ARS. 3 out and 0 doubtful for ARS, 1 out and 2 doubtful for LEE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
ARS
WWWWW
10 May – 31 Aug
LEE
DWLWD
11 May – 30 Aug
3.00Points per game1.60
8Goals for4
1Goals against5
9.94Expected goals6.18
1,751Elo1,506
Head to head over 6 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): ARS 6, drawn 0, LEE 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Arsenal
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
J.TimberDEFinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
NelsonMIDunavailable0%
has departed the club as a free agent.
SalibaDEFinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
Ch 06 · Availability
Leeds
0.8% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Mateo JosephFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
RodonDEFdoubtful50%1.6% xG
Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
GruevMIDdoubtful25%
Knee injury - 25% chance of playing
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean