Fixture 50scheduledGW 5

Fulham v Man Utd

Sun 20 Sept 15:30Zmodel prices only

Expected goals1.41 — 1.40

Expected points1.38 — 1.36

Over 2.553.3%fair 1.87

Both score57.7%fair 1.73

Most likely1-112.6%

Markets priced27

Ch 01 · Outcome

Match result

No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.

OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ

FUL

37.0%2.71–

Draw

26.6%3.76–

MUN

36.5%2.74–

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Fulham37.0%2.71

Draw26.6%3.76

Man Utd36.5%2.74

Double chance

Fulham or draw63.5%1.57

Fulham or Man Utd73.4%1.36

Draw or Man Utd63.0%1.59

Draw no bet

Fulham50.3%1.99

Man Utd49.7%2.01

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Fulham18.0%5.57

Man Utd17.7%5.65

Clean sheet

Fulham24.6%4.06

Man Utd24.4%4.10

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Underlying expected goals-1.34 net xG per match

Favours MUN. FUL +0.00, MUN +1.34 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Recent form0.80 against 2.00 points per game

Favours MUN. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLWDL against WLWWD

Team rating gap-103 Elo

Favours MUN. FUL 1514 against MUN 1617, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours FUL. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing

1 out and 1 doubtful for FUL, 5 out and 1 doubtful for MUN; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

FUL

LLWDL

9 May – 30 Aug

MUN

DWWLW

9 May – 30 Aug

0.80Points per game2.00

5Goals for11

6Goals against6

6.90Expected goals13.79

1,514Elo1,617

Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): FUL 1, drawn 1, MUN 6. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.

Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.

Ch 06 · Availability

Fulham

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

CairneyMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct

De FougerollesDEFdoubtful75%

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 06 · Availability

Man Utd

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

AmadMIDinjured0%

Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

BalebaMIDinjured0%

Ankle injury - Expected back 19 Sep

De LigtDEFinjured0%

Back injury - Unknown return date

HeatonGKPinjured0%

Hamstring injury - Unknown return date

UgarteMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

MountMIDdoubtful75%

Foot injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 07 · Simulation

Re-price without a player

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean