Fixture 48scheduledGW 5

Leeds v Crystal Palace

Sun 20 Sept 13:00Zmodel prices only

Expected goals1.38 — 1.04

Expected points1.60 — 1.11

Over 2.543.5%fair 2.30

Both score49.1%fair 2.04

Most likely1-113.5%

Markets priced27

Ch 01 · Outcome

Match result

No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.

OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ

LEE

43.9%2.28–

Draw

28.6%3.50–

CRY

27.5%3.64–

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Leeds43.9%2.28

Draw28.6%3.50

Crystal Palace27.5%3.64

Double chance

Leeds or draw72.5%1.38

Leeds or Crystal Palace71.4%1.40

Draw or Crystal Palace56.1%1.78

Draw no bet

Leeds61.5%1.63

Crystal Palace38.5%2.60

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Leeds25.7%3.90

Crystal Palace15.5%6.46

Clean sheet

Leeds35.4%2.82

Crystal Palace25.2%3.96

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Unavailable players1% home against 26% away xG missing

Favours LEE. 1 out and 2 doubtful for LEE, 4 out and 0 doubtful for CRY; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Recent form1.60 against 0.20 points per game

Favours LEE. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DWLWD against LLLDL

Underlying expected goals+0.49 net xG per match

Favours LEE. LEE -0.51, CRY -1.00 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours LEE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Team rating gap+3 Elo

Favours LEE. LEE 1506 against CRY 1503, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

LEE

DWLWD

11 May – 30 Aug

CRY

LDLLL

13 May – 28 Aug

1.60Points per game0.20

4Goals for4

5Goals against13

6.18Expected goals6.42

1,506Elo1,503

Head to head over 6 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): LEE 2, drawn 2, CRY 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.

Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.

Ch 06 · Availability

Leeds

0.8% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

Mateo JosephFWDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

RodonDEFdoubtful50%1.6% xG

Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing

GruevMIDdoubtful25%

Knee injury - 25% chance of playing

Ch 06 · Availability

Crystal Palace

26.4% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

MatetaFWDinjured0%26.4% xG

Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct

Chadi RiadDEFinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

SarrMIDinjured0%

Groin injury - Unknown return date

UcheFWDunavailable0%

has returned to Getafe CF

Ch 07 · Simulation

Re-price without a player

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean