Fixture 46scheduledGW 5

Nott'm Forest v Coventry City

Sat 19 Sept 16:30Zmodel prices only

Expected goals2.00 — 0.87

Expected points2.13 — 0.66

Over 2.554.6%fair 1.83

Both score50.6%fair 1.98

Most likely2-011.4%

Markets priced27

Ch 01 · Outcome

Match result

No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.

OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ

NFO

63.7%1.57–

Draw

21.3%4.69–

COV

15.0%6.69–

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Thin sample

Coventry City has only 2 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.

Matches behind each fit: Nott'm Forest 149 · Coventry City 2

Match result

Nott'm Forest63.7%1.57

Draw21.3%4.69

Coventry City15.0%6.69

Double chance

Nott'm Forest or draw85.0%1.18

Nott'm Forest or Coventry City78.7%1.27

Draw or Coventry City36.3%2.76

Draw no bet

Nott'm Forest81.0%1.24

Coventry City19.0%5.26

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Nott'm Forest36.3%2.75

Coventry City7.4%13.60

Clean sheet

Nott'm Forest42.0%2.38

Coventry City13.1%7.66

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Recent form0.60 against 1.80 points per game

Favours COV. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLDLD against LLWWW

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours NFO. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Team rating gap+33 Elo

Favours NFO. NFO 1519 against COV 1486, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Underlying expected goals+0.09 net xG per match

Favours NFO. NFO -0.02, COV -0.11 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Unavailable players1% home against 0% away xG missing

Favours COV. 2 out and 0 doubtful for NFO, 3 out and 0 doubtful for COV; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

NFO

DLDLD

10 May – 29 Aug

COV · incl. Championship

WWWLL

21 Apr – 29 Aug

0.60Points per game1.80

6Goals for12

8Goals against6

8.90Expected goals (2 of 5)1.74

1,519Elo1,486

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.

Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.

Ch 06 · Availability

Nott'm Forest

1.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

I.SangaréMIDinjured0%1.0% xG

Calf injury - Unknown return date

SavonaDEFinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

Ch 06 · Availability

Coventry City

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

Kesler-HaydenDEFinjured0%

Hamstring injury - Unknown return date

WoolfendenDEFinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

WrightFWDinjured0%

Thigh injury - Unknown return date

Ch 07 · Simulation

Re-price without a player

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean