Fixture 44scheduledGW 5

Everton v Ipswich Town

Sat 19 Sept 14:00Zmodel prices only

Expected goals1.91 — 0.89

Expected points2.05 — 0.72

Over 2.553.1%fair 1.88

Both score50.9%fair 1.97

Most likely2-011.1%

Markets priced27

Ch 01 · Outcome

Match result

No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.

OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ

EVE

60.6%1.65–

Draw

22.9%4.36–

IPS

16.4%6.09–

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Everton60.6%1.65

Draw22.9%4.36

Ipswich Town16.4%6.09

Double chance

Everton or draw83.6%1.20

Everton or Ipswich Town77.1%1.30

Draw or Ipswich Town39.4%2.54

Draw no bet

Everton78.7%1.27

Ipswich Town21.3%4.69

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Everton34.3%2.91

Ipswich Town8.2%12.26

Clean sheet

Everton41.0%2.44

Ipswich Town14.8%6.75

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Team rating gap+136 Elo

Favours EVE. EVE 1532 against IPS 1396, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Recent form1.00 against 1.60 points per game

Favours IPS. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DWLLD against LWWDD

Unavailable players0% home against 5% away xG missing

Favours EVE. 1 out and 0 doubtful for EVE, 3 out and 2 doubtful for IPS; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours EVE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Underlying expected goals-0.20 net xG per match

Favours IPS. EVE -0.73, IPS -0.53 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

EVE

DWLLD

10 May – 29 Aug

IPS · incl. Championship

DDWWL

25 Apr – 30 Aug

1.00Points per game1.60

6Goals for9

7Goals against8

6.81Expected goals (2 of 5)3.39

1,532Elo1,396

Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): EVE 1, drawn 1, IPS 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.

Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.

Ch 06 · Availability

Everton

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

NørgaardMIDinjured0%

Groin injury - Unknown return date

Ch 06 · Availability

Ipswich Town

5.3% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

MatusiwaMIDinjured0%

Muscular injury - Unknown return date

PhilogeneMIDinjured0%

Ankle injury - Unknown return date

TaylorMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

EmersonnFWDdoubtful75%21.3% xG

Knee injury - 75% chance of playing

FlorentinoMIDdoubtful75%

Calf injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 07 · Simulation

Re-price without a player

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean