No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
BHA
21.1%4.75–
Draw
25.3%3.95–
ARS
53.6%1.86–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Brighton21.1%4.75
Draw25.3%3.95
Arsenal53.6%1.86
Double chance
Brighton or draw46.4%2.16
Brighton or Arsenal74.7%1.34
Draw or Arsenal78.9%1.27
Draw no bet
Brighton28.2%3.54
Arsenal71.8%1.39
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Brighton10.7%9.35
Arsenal29.9%3.35
Clean sheet
Brighton18.2%5.50
Arsenal37.3%2.68
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Recent form1.20 against 3.00 points per game
Favours ARS. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LWLLW against WWWWW
Team rating gap-189 Elo
Favours ARS. BHA 1562 against ARS 1751, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players14% home against 0% away xG missing
Favours ARS. 4 out and 3 doubtful for BHA, 3 out and 0 doubtful for ARS; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Underlying expected goals-0.67 net xG per match
Favours ARS. BHA +0.65, ARS +1.32 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours BHA. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
BHA
LWLLW
9 May – 30 Aug
ARS
WWWWW
10 May – 31 Aug
1.20Points per game3.00
10Goals for8
8Goals against1
10.95Expected goals9.94
1,562Elo1,751
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): BHA 2, drawn 3, ARS 5. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Brighton
14.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
FergusonFWDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct
MintehMIDinjured0%
Leg injury - Expected back 28 Nov
MitomaMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
TzimasFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
HinshelwoodMIDdoubtful50%27.0% xG
Unspecified injury - 50% chance of playing
AyariMIDdoubtful75%2.1% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
GeorginioFWDdoubtful75%1.5% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Arsenal
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
J.TimberDEFinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
NelsonMIDunavailable0%
has departed the club as a free agent.
SalibaDEFinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean