No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
TOT
37.8%2.65–
Draw
24.9%4.02–
AVL
37.3%2.68–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Spurs37.8%2.65
Draw24.9%4.01
Aston Villa37.3%2.68
Double chance
Spurs or draw62.7%1.59
Spurs or Aston Villa75.1%1.33
Draw or Aston Villa62.2%1.61
Draw no bet
Spurs50.3%1.99
Aston Villa49.7%2.01
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Spurs15.9%6.28
Aston Villa15.7%6.36
Clean sheet
Spurs20.9%4.79
Aston Villa20.7%4.84
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Team rating gap-146 Elo
Favours AVL. TOT 1451 against AVL 1597, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Recent form0.80 against 1.40 points per game
Favours AVL. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLWLD against LLWWD
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours TOT. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Underlying expected goals+0.31 net xG per match
Favours TOT. TOT -0.27, AVL -0.58 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing
3 out and 2 doubtful for TOT, 4 out and 0 doubtful for AVL; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
TOT
LLWLD
11 May – 29 Aug
AVL
DWWLL
10 May – 31 Aug
0.80Points per game1.40
3Goals for8
8Goals against10
6.92Expected goals7.28
1,451Elo1,597
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): TOT 5, drawn 0, AVL 5. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Spurs
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
KulusevskiMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
OdobertMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
XaviMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
MaddisonMIDdoubtful75%
Shoulder injury - 75% chance of playing
SávioMIDdoubtful75%
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Aston Villa
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
GomesMIDsuspended0%
Suspended until 19 Sep
MadjoFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
ManzambiMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
OnanaMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean