Fixture 41scheduledGW 5

Brentford v Chelsea

Fri 18 Sept 19:00Zmodel prices only

Expected goals1.58 — 1.44

Expected points1.47 — 1.28

Over 2.558.1%fair 1.72

Both score61.2%fair 1.63

Most likely1-111.7%

Markets priced27

Ch 01 · Outcome

Match result

No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.

OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ

BRE

40.5%2.47–

Draw

25.4%3.93–

CHE

34.1%2.93–

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Brentford40.5%2.47

Draw25.4%3.93

Chelsea34.1%2.93

Double chance

Brentford or draw65.9%1.52

Brentford or Chelsea74.6%1.34

Draw or Chelsea59.5%1.68

Draw no bet

Brentford54.3%1.84

Chelsea45.7%2.19

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Brentford18.2%5.48

Chelsea15.0%6.66

Clean sheet

Brentford23.8%4.21

Chelsea20.5%4.87

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Recent form1.20 against 2.00 points per game

Favours CHE. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DWDDL against WWLWD

Underlying expected goals-0.49 net xG per match

Favours CHE. BRE -0.35, CHE +0.14 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours BRE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Team rating gap-19 Elo

Favours CHE. BRE 1558 against CHE 1577, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing

Favours CHE. 2 out and 1 doubtful for BRE, 0 out and 3 doubtful for CHE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

BRE

DWDDL

9 May – 30 Aug

CHE

DWLWW

9 May – 30 Aug

1.20Points per game2.00

7Goals for11

7Goals against9

9.33Expected goals9.02

1,558Elo1,577

Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): BRE 3, drawn 4, CHE 3. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.

Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.

Ch 06 · Availability

Brentford

0.4% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

MilamboMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

Van den BergDEFinjured0%

Groin injury - Unknown return date

JensenMIDdoubtful75%1.4% xG

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 06 · Availability

Chelsea

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

CaicedoMIDdoubtful75%

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

HendersonMIDdoubtful75%

Wrist injury - 75% chance of playing

PalestraDEFdoubtful75%

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 07 · Simulation

Re-price without a player

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean