Fixture 36scheduledGW 4

Spurs v Everton

Sat 12 Sept 16:30Zmarket prices held

Expected goals1.48 — 1.20

Expected points1.55 — 1.17

Over 2.550.1%fair 1.99

Both score54.7%fair 1.83

Most likely1-112.9%

Markets priced27

Ch 01 · Outcome

Match result

The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.

OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt

TOT

42.8%2.34−5.1 pp

Draw

27.0%3.70+0.3 pp

EVE

30.1%3.32+4.8 pp

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Spurs42.8%2.33

Draw27.0%3.70

Everton30.1%3.32

Double chance

Spurs or draw69.9%1.43

Spurs or Everton73.0%1.37

Draw or Everton57.2%1.75

Draw no bet

Spurs58.7%1.70

Everton41.3%2.42

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Spurs22.5%4.44

Everton15.3%6.55

Clean sheet

Spurs30.0%3.33

Everton22.8%4.38

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Team rating gap-81 Elo

Favours EVE. TOT 1451 against EVE 1532, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Underlying expected goals+0.46 net xG per match

Favours TOT. TOT -0.27, EVE -0.73 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours TOT. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Recent form0.80 against 1.00 points per game

Favours EVE. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLWLD against DWLLD

Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing

3 out and 2 doubtful for TOT, 1 out and 0 doubtful for EVE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

TOT

LLWLD

11 May – 29 Aug

EVE

DLLWD

10 May – 29 Aug

0.80Points per game1.00

3Goals for6

8Goals against7

6.92Expected goals6.81

1,451Elo1,532

Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): TOT 6, drawn 3, EVE 1. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.

Market	Selection	Best	Book	Implied	N
h2h	away	3.90	Tipico	25.6%	33
h2h	draw	3.69	1xBet	27.1%	33
h2h	home	2.08	1xBet	48.1%	33

Ch 06 · Availability

Spurs

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

KulusevskiMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

OdobertMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

XaviMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

MaddisonMIDdoubtful75%

Shoulder injury - 75% chance of playing

SávioMIDdoubtful75%

Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 06 · Availability

Everton

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

NørgaardMIDinjured0%

Groin injury - Unknown return date

Ch 07 · Simulation

Re-price without a player

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Ch 09 · Divergence

Where the model differs from a price

Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.

h2h awaymodel 30.1% vs 3.90 (Tipico)+17.5 ppstake 1.5%medium confidence

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean