The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt
LIV
57.8%1.73−8.5 pp
Draw
22.4%4.46+3.3 pp
FUL
19.8%5.05+5.1 pp
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Liverpool57.8%1.73
Draw22.4%4.46
Fulham19.8%5.05
Double chance
Liverpool or draw80.2%1.25
Liverpool or Fulham77.6%1.29
Draw or Fulham42.2%2.37
Draw no bet
Liverpool74.5%1.34
Fulham25.5%3.92
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Liverpool28.0%3.57
Fulham8.3%12.01
Clean sheet
Liverpool33.0%3.04
Fulham13.3%7.53
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Team rating gap+110 Elo
Favours LIV. LIV 1624 against FUL 1514, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours LIV. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Underlying expected goals+0.10 net xG per match
Favours LIV. LIV +0.10, FUL +0.00 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form0.80 against 0.80 points per game
last 5 and 5 completed matches: DDDLD against LLWDL
Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing
7 out and 0 doubtful for LIV, 1 out and 1 doubtful for FUL; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
LIV
DDDLD
9 May – 29 Aug
FUL
LDWLL
9 May – 30 Aug
0.80Points per game0.80
8Goals for5
10Goals against6
9.58Expected goals6.90
1,624Elo1,514
Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): LIV 4, drawn 3, FUL 1. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
Market
Selection
Best
Book
Implied
N
h2h
away
6.80
Betfair
14.7%
33
h2h
draw
5.20
Tipico
19.2%
33
h2h
home
1.51
1xBet
66.2%
33
Ch 06 · Availability
Liverpool
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
BradleyDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ChiesaMIDinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
DannsFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
EkitikéFWDinjured0%
Achilles injury - Unknown return date
GomezDEFinjured0%
Muscular injury - Unknown return date
JarosGKPinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
LeoniDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Ch 06 · Availability
Fulham
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
CairneyMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
De FougerollesDEFdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 09 · Divergence
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
h2h drawmodel 22.4% vs 5.20 (Tipico)+16.5 ppstake 1.0%medium confidence
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean