The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt
CRY
53.5%1.87+2.8 pp
Draw
25.8%3.87+0.1 pp
IPS
20.7%4.84−2.9 pp
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Crystal Palace53.5%1.87
Draw25.8%3.87
Ipswich Town20.7%4.84
Double chance
Crystal Palace or draw79.3%1.26
Crystal Palace or Ipswich Town74.2%1.35
Draw or Ipswich Town46.5%2.15
Draw no bet
Crystal Palace72.1%1.39
Ipswich Town27.9%3.59
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Crystal Palace30.6%3.26
Ipswich Town10.8%9.29
Clean sheet
Crystal Palace38.7%2.58
Ipswich Town18.8%5.31
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players26% home against 5% away xG missing
Favours IPS. 4 out and 0 doubtful for CRY, 3 out and 2 doubtful for IPS; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form0.20 against 1.60 points per game
Favours IPS. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLLDL against LWWDD
Team rating gap+107 Elo
Favours CRY. CRY 1503 against IPS 1396, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals-0.47 net xG per match
Favours IPS. CRY -1.00, IPS -0.53 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours CRY. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
CRY
LLLDL
13 May – 28 Aug
IPS · incl. Championship
DDWWL
25 Apr – 30 Aug
0.20Points per game1.60
4Goals for9
13Goals against8
6.42Expected goals (2 of 5)3.39
1,503Elo1,396
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): CRY 2, drawn 0, IPS 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
Market
Selection
Best
Book
Implied
N
h2h
away
4.30
Tipico
23.3%
31
h2h
draw
3.86
1xBet
25.9%
31
h2h
home
1.96
1xBet
51.0%
31
Ch 06 · Availability
Crystal Palace
26.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MatetaFWDinjured0%26.4% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct
Chadi RiadDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
SarrMIDinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
UcheFWDunavailable0%
has returned to Getafe CF
Ch 06 · Availability
Ipswich Town
5.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MatusiwaMIDinjured0%
Muscular injury - Unknown return date
PhilogeneMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
TaylorMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
EmersonnFWDdoubtful75%21.3% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
FlorentinoMIDdoubtful75%
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 09 · Divergence
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
h2h homemodel 53.5% vs 1.96 (1xBet)+4.9 ppstake 1.0%low confidence
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean