The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt
BOU
40.5%2.47+3.6 pp
Draw
26.0%3.85−0.4 pp
BRE
33.5%2.98−3.2 pp
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Bournemouth40.5%2.47
Draw26.0%3.85
Brentford33.5%2.98
Double chance
Bournemouth or draw66.5%1.50
Bournemouth or Brentford74.0%1.35
Draw or Brentford59.5%1.68
Draw no bet
Bournemouth54.7%1.83
Brentford45.3%2.21
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Bournemouth19.1%5.24
Brentford15.4%6.47
Clean sheet
Bournemouth25.2%3.97
Brentford21.5%4.64
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours BOU. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap+28 Elo
Favours BOU. BOU 1586 against BRE 1558, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing
Favours BOU. 4 out and 0 doubtful for BOU, 2 out and 1 doubtful for BRE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Underlying expected goals+0.01 net xG per match
Favours BOU. BOU -0.34, BRE -0.35 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form1.20 against 1.20 points per game
last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLDDW against DWDDL
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
BOU
DLDDW
9 May – 29 Aug
BRE
LDDWD
9 May – 30 Aug
1.20Points per game1.20
5Goals for7
5Goals against7
7.02Expected goals9.33
1,586Elo1,558
Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): BOU 0, drawn 3, BRE 5. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
Market
Selection
Best
Book
Implied
N
h2h
away
2.69
1xBet
37.2%
30
h2h
draw
3.80
Betfair
26.3%
30
h2h
home
2.69
1xBet
37.2%
30
Ch 06 · Availability
Bournemouth
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
AdliMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
J.AraujoDEFinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Kroupi.JrMIDinjured0%
Foot injury - Unknown return date
MilosavljevićDEFinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
Ch 06 · Availability
Brentford
0.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MilamboMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Van den BergDEFinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
JensenMIDdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 09 · Divergence
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
h2h homemodel 40.5% vs 2.69 (1xBet)+9.0 ppstake 1.3%medium confidence
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean