Fixture 31scheduledGW 4

Aston Villa v Nott'm Forest

Sat 12 Sept 14:00Zmarket prices held

Expected goals1.64 — 1.17

Expected points1.69 — 1.05

Over 2.553.2%fair 1.88

Both score56.1%fair 1.78

Most likely1-112.2%

Markets priced27

Ch 01 · Outcome

Match result

The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.

OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt

AVL

47.8%2.09−1.2 pp

Draw

25.8%3.88−0.2 pp

NFO

26.4%3.78+1.4 pp

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Aston Villa47.8%2.09

Draw25.8%3.88

Nott'm Forest26.4%3.78

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw73.6%1.36

Aston Villa or Nott'm Forest74.2%1.35

Draw or Nott'm Forest52.2%1.92

Draw no bet

Aston Villa64.4%1.55

Nott'm Forest35.6%2.81

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Aston Villa24.5%4.08

Nott'm Forest12.7%7.89

Clean sheet

Aston Villa31.2%3.21

Nott'm Forest19.4%5.16

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Underlying expected goals-0.56 net xG per match

Favours NFO. AVL -0.58, NFO -0.02 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Recent form1.40 against 0.60 points per game

Favours AVL. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLWWD against DLDLD

Team rating gap+78 Elo

Favours AVL. AVL 1597 against NFO 1519, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours AVL. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Unavailable players0% home against 1% away xG missing

Favours AVL. 4 out and 0 doubtful for AVL, 2 out and 0 doubtful for NFO; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

AVL

LLWWD

10 May – 31 Aug

NFO

DLDLD

10 May – 29 Aug

1.40Points per game0.60

8Goals for6

10Goals against8

7.28Expected goals8.90

1,597Elo1,519

Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): AVL 4, drawn 2, NFO 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.

Market	Selection	Best	Book	Implied	N
h2h	away	3.90	1xBet	25.6%	33
h2h	draw	3.78	1xBet	26.5%	33
h2h	home	2.02	1xBet	49.5%	33

Ch 06 · Availability

Aston Villa

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

GomesMIDsuspended0%

Suspended until 19 Sep

MadjoFWDinjured0%

Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

ManzambiMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

OnanaMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

Ch 06 · Availability

Nott'm Forest

1.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

I.SangaréMIDinjured0%1.0% xG

Calf injury - Unknown return date

SavonaDEFinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

Ch 07 · Simulation

Re-price without a player

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Ch 09 · Divergence

Where the model differs from a price

Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.

h2h awaymodel 26.4% vs 3.90 (1xBet)+3.1 ppstake 0.3%low confidence

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean