Fixture 29scheduledGW 3

Everton v Man Utd

Sun 6 Sept 13:00Zmarket prices held

Expected goals1.24 — 1.27

Expected points1.33 — 1.38

Over 2.545.7%fair 2.19

Both score51.7%fair 1.93

Most likely1-113.6%

Markets priced27

Ch 01 · Outcome

Match result

The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.

OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt

EVE

35.0%2.86+5.6 pp

Draw

28.4%3.52+2.0 pp

MUN

36.6%2.73−7.6 pp

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Everton35.0%2.86

Draw28.4%3.52

Man Utd36.6%2.73

Double chance

Everton or draw63.4%1.58

Everton or Man Utd71.6%1.40

Draw or Man Utd65.0%1.54

Draw no bet

Everton48.9%2.05

Man Utd51.1%1.96

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Everton19.2%5.20

Man Utd20.2%4.95

Clean sheet

Everton28.1%3.56

Man Utd29.1%3.44

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Underlying expected goals-2.07 net xG per match

Favours MUN. EVE -0.73, MUN +1.34 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Recent form1.00 against 2.00 points per game

Favours MUN. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DWLLD against WLWWD

Team rating gap-85 Elo

Favours MUN. EVE 1532 against MUN 1617, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours EVE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing

1 out and 0 doubtful for EVE, 5 out and 1 doubtful for MUN; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

EVE

DWLLD

10 May – 29 Aug

MUN

DWWLW

9 May – 30 Aug

1.00Points per game2.00

6Goals for11

7Goals against6

6.81Expected goals13.79

1,532Elo1,617

Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): EVE 2, drawn 2, MUN 6. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.

Market	Selection	Best	Book	Implied	N
h2h	away	2.27	1xBet	44.1%	43
h2h	draw	3.75	Betfred (UK)	26.7%	43
h2h	home	3.45	Unibet (SE)	29.0%	43

Ch 06 · Availability

Everton

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

NørgaardMIDinjured0%

Groin injury - Unknown return date

Ch 06 · Availability

Man Utd

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

AmadMIDinjured0%

Unspecified injury - Unknown return date

BalebaMIDinjured0%

Ankle injury - Expected back 19 Sep

De LigtDEFinjured0%

Back injury - Unknown return date

HeatonGKPinjured0%

Hamstring injury - Unknown return date

UgarteMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

MountMIDdoubtful75%

Foot injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 07 · Simulation

Re-price without a player

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Ch 09 · Divergence

Where the model differs from a price

Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.

h2h homemodel 35.0% vs 3.45 (Unibet (SE))+20.7 ppstake 2.0%medium confidence

h2h drawmodel 28.4% vs 3.75 (Betfair)+6.6 ppstake 0.6%medium confidence

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean