The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt
HUL
30.5%3.28+7.3 pp
Draw
25.8%3.87+0.0 pp
AVL
43.6%2.29−7.4 pp
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260903
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Thin sample
Hull City has only 2 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Hull City 2 · Aston Villa 149
Match result
Hull City30.5%3.27
Draw25.8%3.87
Aston Villa43.6%2.29
Double chance
Hull City or draw56.4%1.77
Hull City or Aston Villa74.2%1.35
Draw or Aston Villa69.5%1.44
Draw no bet
Hull City41.2%2.43
Aston Villa58.8%1.70
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Hull City15.0%6.67
Aston Villa21.9%4.57
Clean sheet
Hull City21.3%4.70
Aston Villa28.2%3.55
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Team rating gap-74 Elo
Favours AVL. HUL 1523 against AVL 1597, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Recent form2.00 against 1.40 points per game
Favours HUL. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWWLD against LLWWD
Underlying expected goals+0.38 net xG per match
Favours HUL. HUL -0.20, AVL -0.58 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours HUL. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing
6 out and 2 doubtful for HUL, 4 out and 0 doubtful for AVL; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
HUL · incl. Championship
WWWLD
21 Apr – 29 Aug
AVL
DWWLL
10 May – 31 Aug
2.00Points per game1.40
8Goals for8
5Goals against10
1.96Expected goals (2 of 5)7.28
1,523Elo1,597
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
Market
Selection
Best
Book
Implied
N
h2h
away
1.96
Unibet (SE)
51.0%
43
h2h
draw
3.90
Smarkets
25.6%
43
h2h
home
4.21
1xBet
23.8%
43
Ch 06 · Availability
Hull City
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
ButlandGKPinjured0%
Arm injury - Unknown return date
GelhardtMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Expected back 5 Sep
GyabiMIDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
HughesDEFinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
MatazoMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ZambranoMIDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
CoyleDEFdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
CrooksMIDdoubtful75%
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Aston Villa
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
GomesMIDsuspended0%
Suspended until 19 Sep
MadjoFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
ManzambiMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
OnanaMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 09 · Divergence
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
h2h homemodel 30.5% vs 4.21 (1xBet)+28.5 ppstake 2.0%medium confidence
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean