Fixture 27scheduledGW 3

Nott'm Forest v Spurs

Sat 5 Sept 14:00Zmarket prices held

Expected goals1.62 — 1.36

Expected points1.55 — 1.20

Over 2.557.3%fair 1.74

Both score60.3%fair 1.66

Most likely1-111.8%

Markets priced27

Ch 01 · Outcome

Match result

The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.

OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt

NFO

43.1%2.32+4.4 pp

Draw

25.4%3.93−2.2 pp

TOT

31.5%3.18−2.2 pp

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Nott'm Forest43.1%2.32

Draw25.4%3.93

Spurs31.5%3.18

Double chance

Nott'm Forest or draw68.5%1.46

Nott'm Forest or Spurs74.6%1.34

Draw or Spurs56.9%1.76

Draw no bet

Nott'm Forest57.8%1.73

Spurs42.2%2.37

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Nott'm Forest20.0%5.01

Spurs14.0%7.15

Clean sheet

Nott'm Forest25.7%3.90

Spurs19.7%5.08

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Team rating gap+68 Elo

Favours NFO. NFO 1519 against TOT 1451, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours NFO. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Underlying expected goals+0.25 net xG per match

Favours NFO. NFO -0.02, TOT -0.27 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Recent form0.60 against 0.80 points per game

Favours TOT. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLDLD against LLWLD

Unavailable players1% home against 0% away xG missing

Favours TOT. 2 out and 0 doubtful for NFO, 3 out and 2 doubtful for TOT; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

NFO

DLDLD

10 May – 29 Aug

TOT

DLWLL

11 May – 29 Aug

0.60Points per game0.80

6Goals for3

8Goals against8

8.90Expected goals6.92

1,519Elo1,451

Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): NFO 4, drawn 0, TOT 4. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.

Market	Selection	Best	Book	Implied	N
h2h	away	2.96	1xBet	33.8%	43
h2h	draw	3.60	Betfair	27.8%	43
h2h	home	2.63	Unibet (SE)	38.0%	43

Ch 06 · Availability

Nott'm Forest

1.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

I.SangaréMIDinjured0%1.0% xG

Calf injury - Unknown return date

SavonaDEFinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

Ch 06 · Availability

Spurs

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

KulusevskiMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

OdobertMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

XaviMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

MaddisonMIDdoubtful75%

Shoulder injury - 75% chance of playing

SávioMIDdoubtful75%

Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 07 · Simulation

Re-price without a player

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Ch 09 · Divergence

Where the model differs from a price

Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.

h2h homemodel 43.1% vs 2.63 (Unibet (NL))+13.3 ppstake 2.0%medium confidence

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean