Fixture 25scheduledGW 3

Fulham v Crystal Palace

Sat 5 Sept 14:00Zmarket prices held

Expected goals1.43 — 0.94

Expected points1.72 — 1.00

Over 2.542.3%fair 2.36

Both score47.1%fair 2.12

Most likely1-113.3%

Markets priced27

Ch 01 · Outcome

Match result

The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.

OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt

FUL

47.7%2.10+6.2 pp

Draw

28.3%3.53+0.7 pp

CRY

23.9%4.18−6.8 pp

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Fulham47.7%2.10

Draw28.3%3.53

Crystal Palace23.9%4.18

Double chance

Fulham or draw76.1%1.31

Fulham or Crystal Palace71.7%1.40

Draw or Crystal Palace52.3%1.91

Draw no bet

Fulham66.6%1.50

Crystal Palace33.4%2.99

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Fulham29.0%3.45

Crystal Palace13.8%7.25

Clean sheet

Fulham39.1%2.56

Crystal Palace23.9%4.18

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Unavailable players0% home against 26% away xG missing

Favours FUL. 1 out and 1 doubtful for FUL, 4 out and 0 doubtful for CRY; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Underlying expected goals+1.01 net xG per match

Favours FUL. FUL +0.00, CRY -1.00 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Recent form0.80 against 0.20 points per game

Favours FUL. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLWDL against LLLDL

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours FUL. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Team rating gap+11 Elo

Favours FUL. FUL 1514 against CRY 1503, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

FUL

LLWDL

9 May – 30 Aug

CRY

LDLLL

13 May – 28 Aug

0.80Points per game0.20

5Goals for4

6Goals against13

6.90Expected goals6.42

1,514Elo1,503

Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): FUL 2, drawn 4, CRY 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.

Market	Selection	Best	Book	Implied	N
h2h	away	3.21	1xBet	31.2%	43
h2h	draw	3.60	Betfair Sportsbook	27.8%	43
h2h	home	2.42	Betfair	41.3%	43

Ch 06 · Availability

Fulham

0.0% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

CairneyMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct

De FougerollesDEFdoubtful75%

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 06 · Availability

Crystal Palace

26.4% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

MatetaFWDinjured0%26.4% xG

Hamstring injury - Expected back 11 Oct

Chadi RiadDEFinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

SarrMIDinjured0%

Groin injury - Unknown return date

UcheFWDunavailable0%

has returned to Getafe CF

Ch 07 · Simulation

Re-price without a player

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Ch 09 · Divergence

Where the model differs from a price

Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.

h2h homemodel 47.7% vs 2.42 (Betfair)+15.5 ppstake 2.0%medium confidence

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean