Fixture 23scheduledGW 3

Brentford v Sunderland

Sat 5 Sept 14:00Zmarket prices held

Expected goals1.56 — 1.03

Expected points1.74 — 1.00

Over 2.547.9%fair 2.09

Both score51.5%fair 1.94

Most likely1-112.7%

Markets priced27

Ch 01 · Outcome

Match result

The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.

OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt

BRE

49.0%2.04−11.5 pp

Draw

26.7%3.75+3.4 pp

SUN

24.3%4.11+8.2 pp

Ch 02 · Book

27 markets

dixon_coles xi001-20260903

Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.

Match result

Brentford49.0%2.04

Draw26.7%3.75

Sunderland24.3%4.11

Double chance

Brentford or draw75.7%1.32

Brentford or Sunderland73.3%1.36

Draw or Sunderland51.0%1.96

Draw no bet

Brentford66.8%1.50

Sunderland33.2%3.02

A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.

Win to nil

Brentford27.6%3.63

Sunderland12.8%7.79

Clean sheet

Brentford35.7%2.80

Sunderland21.0%4.77

Ch 03 · Reasoning

What is driving this

computed, not generated

Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.

Underlying expected goals-0.79 net xG per match

Favours SUN. BRE -0.35, SUN +0.44 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them

Recent form1.20 against 2.00 points per game

Favours SUN. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DWDDL against WLWWD

Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent

Favours BRE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term

Team rating gap+22 Elo

Favours BRE. BRE 1558 against SUN 1536, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds

Unavailable players0% home against 0% away xG missing

Favours SUN. 2 out and 1 doubtful for BRE, 1 out and 1 doubtful for SUN; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed

Ch 04 · Comparison

Both sides

BRE

DWDDL

9 May – 30 Aug

SUN

DWWLW

9 May – 30 Aug

1.20Points per game2.00

7Goals for7

7Goals against4

9.33Expected goals7.59

1,558Elo1,536

Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): BRE 1, drawn 0, SUN 1. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.

Ch 05 · Market

Bookmaker prices

Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.

Market	Selection	Best	Book	Implied	N
h2h	away	6.40	Unibet (SE)	15.6%	43
h2h	draw	4.21	1xBet	23.8%	43
h2h	home	1.67	1xBet	59.9%	43

Ch 06 · Availability

Brentford

0.4% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

MilamboMIDinjured0%

Knee injury - Unknown return date

Van den BergDEFinjured0%

Groin injury - Unknown return date

JensenMIDdoubtful75%1.4% xG

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 06 · Availability

Sunderland

0.3% xG out

Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.

AdingraMIDinjured0%

Ankle injury - Unknown return date

DiarraMIDdoubtful75%1.1% xG

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Ch 07 · Simulation

Re-price without a player

Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.

Ch 09 · Divergence

Where the model differs from a price

Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.

h2h drawmodel 26.7% vs 4.21 (1xBet)+12.2 ppstake 1.0%medium confidence

Ch 10 · Calibration

How this model actually scores

Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.

loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures

Metric	Model	Market	Δ
Ranked probability score	0.2047	0.1965	+0.0082
Log loss	0.9882	0.9623	+0.0259
Brier	0.5883	0.5711	+0.0172
Accuracy	52.5%	54.8%	−2.3 pp

Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean